Reporting note: this article draws on Sky Sports; Score808 Live provides the summary and editorial framing.
Lewis Jones, the Sky Sports tipster known as Jones Knows, has built his weekend card around the Tottenham vs Chelsea prediction markets and a handful of other angles across the domestic fixtures. The Chelsea vs Tottenham meeting sits alongside Aston Villa vs Man City, Liverpool vs Brighton and Man Utd vs Bournemouth in a set of eight games. His method is consistent throughout: find a price that looks wrong compared with the pattern behind it.
Tottenham vs Chelsea prediction turns on the cards market
The last seven meetings between Chelsea and Tottenham have averaged six cards per game, while referee Chris Kavanagh has shown 4.2 cards per 90 minutes since the start of last season. That is the third-highest average of any Premier League referee over that period. With the over 5.5 cards line short at 20/23, Jones moves into the player market instead.
His selection is Levi Colwill to be carded at 4/1. The case rests on James Maddison, who since 2018 has been responsible for 77 opposition players receiving yellow cards, working out at roughly one every 215 minutes. Maddison has already helped get two opponents booked this season, and Colwill is the defender Jones expects to be tempted into the next rash challenge.
Score prediction: 1-1.
Aston Villa vs Man City and Villa's home record against the elite
Jones's second pick rests on Villa Park. Since the start of the 2023/24 season, Aston Villa have played 13 home games against teams that finished in the top four that season, winning eight, drawing two and losing three. That works out at 2.00 points per game, and all three of their home wins over Manchester City sit inside that sample.
City arrive with seven league wins from seven, which is why the market leans so heavily their way. Jones argues that record should not turn Villa into a team to oppose, pointing to Unai Emery's side finding their rhythm after a difficult start, including a win at Newcastle. He takes Aston Villa double chance at 6/5.
Score prediction: 2-1.
Liverpool vs Brighton and Hurzeler's record against the top three
Since his appointment in 2024, Fabian Hurzeler's Brighton have collected 19 points from 13 games against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, a league-high return across those fixtures. They scored 20 goals and conceded 17 in that run. Jones calls the numbers jaw-dropping and argues Brighton should not be priced as outsiders simply because of the badge on the other side.
His pick is Brighton draw no bet at 11/8, which returns the stake if the points are shared while paying out on a win. He accepts Anfield remains an intimidating place to visit.
Score prediction: 1-2.
Man Utd vs Bournemouth and the favourite under scrutiny
Manchester United are strong favourites for this game despite taking seven points from their opening seven Premier League matches, their worst start to a top-flight season in 37 years. They have gone seven games without a win in all competitions, losing four and drawing three.
Jones sees a worrying lack of togetherness, citing Bruno Fernandes' body language and his post-match comments following the Como game. Bournemouth, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last six meetings with United and have scored 15 goals across those games. The selection is Bournemouth draw no bet at 11/8.
Score prediction: 1-3.
Arsenal, Ipswich and the rest of the weekend selections
The remaining picks are spread across six fixtures, with the strongest statistical cases attached to Arsenal and Fulham.
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest: Liam Delap to be carded at 3/1. Delap averaged 2.6 fouls per 90 minutes and was booked 12 times in the Premier League during the 2024/25 Ipswich campaign, and he has two yellow cards in five starts for Forest. Referee Thomas Bramall sent him off for two yellows at Wolves last season. Score: 1-2.
- Arsenal vs Everton: Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals at 10/11, a combination that has landed in 12 of their last 14 home matches in the Premier League and Champions League, including each of the last eight at home. Score: 2-0.
- Coventry vs Fulham: Fulham to score over 1.5 goals at evens. Fulham average a league-high 33.5 touches in the opposition box per game, and only Brighton and Manchester City have a higher open-play expected goals figure per 90 than their 1.34. Score: 1-2.
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: 0-0 at half-time at 5/2. Palace have conceded two or more goals in 11 of their last 13 Premier League games, and after the 5-0 defeat by Brighton, Pierre Sage said he needed to change something. Score: 1-0.
- Hull vs Brentford: Kristoffer Ajer to be fouled at least once at 10/11, following a pattern of centre-backs drawing 1.5 fouls per 90 minutes against Hull. Score: 1-1.
- Sunderland vs Leeds: the draw at 21/10. Leeds have drawn eight of their last 16 Premier League games. Score: 1-1.
These are the tipster's own readings and prices rather than reported team news, so treat the odds as opinion rather than information. The original analysis and selections are from skysports.com.
